Marian Lupu's fiasco is a failure of the external sponsors of Moldova
English // 16:35, 7 декабря 2009 // 3091
Dmitry Soin, the leader of the IYC-PDP "PRORIV!", the candidate of sociological sciences, comments on the next non-election of the president of Moldova.Marian Lupu's failure has been against a background of numerous expert estimations and the conclusions about that the Moldavian communists are on the verge of the dissidence and the part of them is ready to vote for the candidate from a liberal and democratic coalition. Vladimir Tsurkan's name was called as communist dissident. The main geopolitical players (the EU, Russia and Ukraine) are interested in stabilization of Moldova and stimulate the parties to political crisis overcoming. It was one of the arguments for this scenario. The information was circulated about The USA (Chaudhry) worked for this result too. Voronin was proposed to all embassies from Russian to the American as profitable wife. He was convinced of necessity of the compromise.
He was sent plain signals, and Lupu was communicated as nearly elected president at interstate level. But it didn’t affect on Voronin. The promises are spoken to be fundamental, from personal security guarantees to promises to keep family actives, capitals, the lands and the realty. If it is really true Voronin and Tkachuk should show Strasbourg, Washington, Moscow and Kiev up. They have shown that struggle for returning to the power is not finished for them, and super states, guarantors and intermediaries may give a time out in Moldavian policy. To the point it would be a good caricature. This situation is alike a smoking room where it is difficult to make out the perplexed faces of the large states and the head of OSCE Mission in Moldova. There are the crumpled telegrams and prognosis of successful results of voting for Lupu to their own capitals on the floor. Voronin and Tkachuk raise their brilliant glasses to political special action successfully held, somewhere above. As political “rappers” would tell: that’re boys, the Moldavian boys, because of their ability to hold out. I may not be suspected of sympathy with Voronin or Tkachuk, but also I was surprised their displaying fortitude in front of external pressure. Maybe it is Pyrrhic victory but it is a victory in any case. Lupu's political lose the influence and the power may be called a fiasco of Moldavian external sponsors.
Marian Lupu's fiasco has shown visually Moldova has not been ready yet the president-democrat to be, which has been trained at the different western seminars and the programs, which is speaking English and several more languages fluently, which is smiling and ready for all compromises and consensuses. The fancy of the London and Washington has been not wanted. And even the individual meeting of Marian Lupu and the president of Russia has not helped. It is in a question: who is listened to by communists of Moldova? – The West or the East? Apparently, they listen only to themselves.
Lupe's fiasco will have an effect on Moldavian and Transnistrian settlement. Not only the settlement will be put off for a year (it is minimum), but also the discussion will be. The talks remained idle about politicians will have come to power on both banks of Dnestr in a near future and they will have agreed about something. Therefore today supporters of Transnistrian tough management model had have the next argument about necessity of strengthening of a presidential vertical, and there is nothing for youth reformers but they have to think hard about the lining up alternative scenarios. Of course, since the new constitution to be, most likely, supporters of the president “have missed”, it will have not been in time for the beginning of elections into the local soviets. Therefore everything will be decided in 2010 following the election of local legislature and Supreme Soviet of the Dniester Moldavian Republic. Who will make a necessary political configuration in these authorities, will be the leader in struggle for the most important prize to take the president’s stand in 2011.
All of us were shown by Moldova how much it is difficultly predicted country. The degree of external dependences was shown visually too. Take notice, Lupu was not supported only by Romania, and it was enough for him to become the president. Maybe it is a coincidence, maybe it isn't. There is one more indicative fact: Trayan Beresku had been won the elections having been being undesirable by The West and The East the day before desirable Lupu's fiasco. Trayan is closely connected with Dorin Kartoake's and Michael Gimpu's views, he is charismatic and intellectual imperially. To the point, they supported him directly in Moldova. He does not hide Bessarabian views, and he was voted for more than 90 % by citizens of Romania living in RM. So the song «Rise the Romanian!» will receive one more powerful impulse.
Hardly Marian Lupu will save his political future run away liberal and democratic coalition. Deserters are like neither on the left, nor on the right. The coalition (Michiel Gimpu and Vlad Filat) has compromised seriously "red" ex-speaker. The right has never been friendly to him, and the left have held him up the traitor. Therefore being faked as Hollyvood standarts the mister Lupu and his command will have to retrain for the trainers of the peace making trainings under the aegis of "usual dialogues about empty". On the preterm elections they will be torn to pieces, on the one hand, by the ex-adherents of the Communist party, but, on the other hand, by ex-partisans of the coalition.
If the activization of Beresku's factor is, the increase of pro-Romanian powers will be, and the further transition of Kishinev to Bucharest will be inevitable.