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Dmitry Soin: the way out the confrontation is illusive yet

English // 12:11, 23 ноября 2009 // 2296
altNovember 18th, 2009 the historical session to certain degree of The Supreme Soviet has taken place in Transnistria. The sharpest assesses have sounded for all history of The Dniester Moldavian Republic existence and political requirements to the president and its command were spoken by the representatives of the legislative power.

The Result of the session was the deviation of the presidential bill about realization the Referendum in support of the new Constitution project which working out was developed much more by the command of the President.There is a new political situation, on account of parliamentary session in Transnistria and round the republic. The potential of its development and possible consequences for Transnistria are commented on by a member of the Russian Association of Political Sciences, the candidate of sociology Dmitry Soin in interview to the correspondent of RIA "Dniester".

RIA "Dniester": How can events develop in the course of relations "president-parliament"? It is clear they may be various. We will try to designate them, rate accurately a probability of their development, and accordingly, to try to weigh possible consequences of realization these scenarios for a situation at regional and foreign policy level in each individual case.

Dmitry Soin: the Forecast of development of relations on a line "president-parliament" depends on activity degree, both internal, and external factors. For example, who will be supported in opposition by Russia, Ukraine, or Europe and the USA? Today, I understand, external players have refused support to Igor Smirnov and have counted on parliament.Russia in its separate persons of politicians and experts in general has accounted for that the initiative of the Constitution and the Referendum is impossible for Moscow. I think this factor was not the last in Igor Smirnov's decision to agree with deputies about the conciliatory commission.In general, the internal factors are numerous. So, the economic component hasn't appeared on the president's side. The basic economic subjects, both especially Transnistrian, and Russian, too have account for Igor Smirnov they are not with him.

There was a serious dissidence in a civil society. And if the parliament has managed to gether all forces to the session at the determinant moment, having provided a clear dominant over the president, the president's team has turn out a complete fiasco.The compromise variant of development of events is theoretically possible. The parties work out the mutually acceptable project of the Constitution on the conciliatory commission and, may be, change the basic law even without the referendum.But, judging by Grigory Marakutsa's last statements, other deputies, and also proceeding from the maintenance of the statement of the press-service of president Igor Smirnov, the way out the confrontation while is illusive yet.

The sides have stood for 24 hours, having promised each other not to let somebody into a secret. You see, at session the decision not to make out sharp reports was accepted, but every of them appeared in the Internet. It means the information war is continuing.It is hard to say what the end opposition final will be. The side's rates are too great and that's why the initiative, most likely, will pass from hand to hand. Who will have the most a command resource, and it is both money, and experts and mass-media, and external support, - that will win.

- Does the rate of the Russian Federation, EU and other on parliament mean, that the deputy case - though present though possible future - is considered from without as force which will be easy to carry on a dialogue in a future, achieving the certain break in business of reintegration of Moldova?  Is it possible to consider steps of Moscow for the consolidation of relations attitude to Lupu - strategic partnership The Democratic Party of Moldova with "Edinaya Rossia" - as a spade work to join RM and Transnistria on a platform of the interaction of parties-partners of "Edinaya Rossia" on the both bank of Dniester - "Obnovlenie" and The Democratic Party of Moldova.

- Concerning to the scenario in which The Democratic party of Moldova and "Obnovlenie" in common under the direction of "Edinaya Rossia" will join Moldova, I'll tell so, it is possible in the theoretical model, but it is impossible in practice in the near prospect. First, Marian Lupu's and its party destiny remain undecided. Secondly, in "Obnovlenie" , as in the most of other parties of Transnistria, the loss of independece is said to be fraught with serious shocks in the economy and policy.

Any guarantees given to our business or political powers from Moldova, can disappear at any moment. For example, it may be at the change of a regime or in case of installations of external sponsors of Kishinev. It is clear, Marian Lupu's young command and a young reformer's command from "Obnovlenie" are alike outwardly.But I don't think it is an occasion to association of the countries. May be, it is an occasion to interparty cooperation...But no more.

If any forces come to power in Moldova, it will be in its on way attitude to Transnistria. It concerns Transnistria too. Even the most loyal forces for Kishinev will try to stand apart from it in case of coming to power. This is the law of political psychology.

- May we characterize moods of EU, the Russian Federation and Ukraine attitude to sides of Transnistrian political crisis as a stable aim at something concrete, such as Smirnov's resignation, changing of system from presidental to parliamentary and other expectations designating by the different politicians and analysts in Moscow, EU and Ukraine? Is this concerted actions attitude to local territory, or does each side have its own interest, and is their present opinion the momentary coincidence of views?

- I think the interests of the sides are individual, the coincidences are situational. There are both Igor Smirnov's supporters and opponents in every enumerated country. Judging by a today's situation, opponents are more active.It is the matter, that Transnistrian bodies responsible for foreign policy have very little EFFICIENCY. But informal structures are very active, and their efforts are directed on compromentation to Smirnov. It can create stable and active external front against Smirnov. In any situation it may let down the working president very much.

- May we say about that "Obnovlenie" and the persons, closely connected with it, will become the dominant region power and the most interesting side for the contacts and agreements with the external players in a near future? Have other political groups the potential?

- Yes, "Obnovlenie" today is the largest party, financially well provided for. But there are also another groups, they have their potential and the right to be present at the different government bodies. It is necessary to stimulate them. We live in the democratic society, one of which indications is multi-party system.

It is possible to measure party potential really only by the use of one condition - transition to a party electoral system. Then the real weight of parties in a society at once will be visible.

Concerning of external relations - I agree, "Obnovlenie" have the most essential ones, you know, this party dominates in parliament and in many local soviets. Talking to "Obnovlenie", external players understand that in fact they speak with legislature. It is reasonable.

RIA “Dniester”

Translated by Dina Cherevatenko