Moldavian scenarios and Transniestrian deals
English // 11:02, 31 марта 2009 // 3246
Interview with the leader of MMK-PDP "PRORIV!", Dmitry Soin.
- What are the possible scenarios of post elective situation in Moldova? Whether «colour revolution» is possible there?
- Thee destiny of Moldova was never so strongly connected with elective perspectives of only one party - communistic. Post elective situation in this country depends on the percent of electors it will get. If communists will manage to show their power and to receive the confident majority in this case internal political conditions will remain under the control of ruling Moldavian elite. What is a confident victory for Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova? It is not necessary to take 50 or 60 % of voices. The confident victory of communists begins from 40 % and more. It will allow them to receive more than 50 deputy mandates and to generate a coalition by an example of 2005 during the distribution of voices of the parties which did not passed in parliament. And it is not important with whom to create the coalition. It is important first of all to select directing bodies of parliament and new president and also to confirm the structure of the Cabinet of Ministers. In this case even public mass actions of the opposition will not change anything. The present ruling class of Moldova has managed to create serious security system of their institutes. For this reason any disorders in the street as a result will be suppressed and communists will gain their power for another 4 years. Especially in case of the confident victory of Communist Party their opponents will spend too much time for evidence in law enforcement bodies of RM on various criminal cases, they'll have to pay the lawyers, and, probably, urgently to emigrate, for example to Romania.
But there is another scenario. If communists will get less than 40 percent of votes. For example 30-35. We know that politicians are like a wolf pack. While the leader is strong everybody is subject or at least observe politically correct respect. But if the leader misses, the problems begin. So, if communists get less than 40 percent, it will mean, that «Akella» has missed. Such electoral turn will be a signal to creation of a powerful anticommunist coalition in parliament from parties with national-liberal sense; it will rise crowds at the streets and open way to Moldova for the Romanian students who wait their turn on the Moldavian-Romanian border but still are kept by frontier guards of Moldova. Force demonstration is very important for political elite of Moldova and its population since the times of Stefan Cheal Mare, Ioan the Fierce and others authoritative lords. Everything that above 40 % is this demonstration. Everything lower than 40% faces weakness and beginning of the end. Today there is inconsistent information of the sociological interrogations, concerning results of voting. Somebody predicts communists will get 53 %, somebody - from 20 to 25 %. Such difference in numbers speaks only about one thing - it is very difficult to predict the result of elections in RM. The fact that Communist Party will take the first place is obvious. Next are Filata party and its partners on a national-liberal coalition: Gimpu-Kirtoake and Urekyana. Centrists, social democrats and other political parties of a low level can not take their sits in the future parliament at all. It is not important, how national-liberals will share their votes. Moreover Filat, Urekyan and Kirtoake have sworn on the Bible to create the coalition in the parliament and to finish with communistic regime. That is, most likely their voices will form the unified whole. National-liberals understand, that they do not have to win at once at all - it is enough to block election of the new president of the country by the parliament , thus, its dissolution and on unscheduled elections to put PCRM shattering defeat. I will notice at once, that unscheduled elections, if it happens, will pass under fanfares of the numerous mass street actions probably accompanied by collisions with each other and with police. The political chaos is also possible and those who control streets of cities and first of all of the capital, will win it.
Therefore a question number one - how many percent will take the Moldavian communists and whether they can keep a situation under the control? It also should be in the epicenter of the analysis of the interested in Moldavian elections political analysts. It seems to me, that political fights will not be limited by 5th of April. Stakes are too high and all the participants of this race are afraid to loose . Unfortunately, political defeat in Moldova is an equivalent to the adjudication. Therefore the basic events can just be spread out during the post elective period. It is not excluded, that the country will be seized by disorders, even "colour revolution" is possible. But all it will be actual only in one case - if «Akella» will miss and Communist Party will get less than 40 percent of votes. Otherwise the political system will easily cope with any "revolutionary" splashes and again will show the amazing viability.
- How will develop the situation in Transniestria in a context of a going deep economic crisis and a growing competition of regional elite?
- Any crisis generates polarization inside of the society, creates preconditions for social conflicts. Position in Transniestria is aggravated with that struggle of elite for distribution of powers and influence spheres by time has coincided with serious economic problems. Undoubtedly, the main intrigue of this event is , how much executive vertical is ready to polemize adequately with authors of «initiatives of 16». I have already noticed polarization of public organisations and parties on this question. Evgeniy Shevchyuk's politically correct steps which has carried out consultations practically with all regional parties, say that struggle for a civil society of Transniestria will only increase. In fight of elite are important not only legal arguments and economic motivation, but also support of politically active population. Probably, even in the form of meetings and other street actions. Shevchyuk gave his opinion at the meeting with parties and public organisations, now we will look, what will respond the presidential vertical.
In my opinion «PRORIV!» has a big happiness not to participate in these dismantling. Our Movement places the stake on concrete affairs which bring advantage to common transniestrians. We, still support increasing communication of Transniestria with Russia, construction of the democratic and socially focused state, involving of the youth in actual political, humanitarian, educational, cultural and improving projects. Disputes of political and economical elite are interesting to us only in that sense that we are troubled with destiny of our republic. You know that too rough discussion of amendments in the Constitution or too heated arguments concerning distribution of resources, powers and financial streams can really harm Transniestria. To admit it means to lose the republic.
- What are the possible scenarios of post elective situation in Moldova? Whether «colour revolution» is possible there?
- Thee destiny of Moldova was never so strongly connected with elective perspectives of only one party - communistic. Post elective situation in this country depends on the percent of electors it will get. If communists will manage to show their power and to receive the confident majority in this case internal political conditions will remain under the control of ruling Moldavian elite. What is a confident victory for Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova? It is not necessary to take 50 or 60 % of voices. The confident victory of communists begins from 40 % and more. It will allow them to receive more than 50 deputy mandates and to generate a coalition by an example of 2005 during the distribution of voices of the parties which did not passed in parliament. And it is not important with whom to create the coalition. It is important first of all to select directing bodies of parliament and new president and also to confirm the structure of the Cabinet of Ministers. In this case even public mass actions of the opposition will not change anything. The present ruling class of Moldova has managed to create serious security system of their institutes. For this reason any disorders in the street as a result will be suppressed and communists will gain their power for another 4 years. Especially in case of the confident victory of Communist Party their opponents will spend too much time for evidence in law enforcement bodies of RM on various criminal cases, they'll have to pay the lawyers, and, probably, urgently to emigrate, for example to Romania.
But there is another scenario. If communists will get less than 40 percent of votes. For example 30-35. We know that politicians are like a wolf pack. While the leader is strong everybody is subject or at least observe politically correct respect. But if the leader misses, the problems begin. So, if communists get less than 40 percent, it will mean, that «Akella» has missed. Such electoral turn will be a signal to creation of a powerful anticommunist coalition in parliament from parties with national-liberal sense; it will rise crowds at the streets and open way to Moldova for the Romanian students who wait their turn on the Moldavian-Romanian border but still are kept by frontier guards of Moldova. Force demonstration is very important for political elite of Moldova and its population since the times of Stefan Cheal Mare, Ioan the Fierce and others authoritative lords. Everything that above 40 % is this demonstration. Everything lower than 40% faces weakness and beginning of the end. Today there is inconsistent information of the sociological interrogations, concerning results of voting. Somebody predicts communists will get 53 %, somebody - from 20 to 25 %. Such difference in numbers speaks only about one thing - it is very difficult to predict the result of elections in RM. The fact that Communist Party will take the first place is obvious. Next are Filata party and its partners on a national-liberal coalition: Gimpu-Kirtoake and Urekyana. Centrists, social democrats and other political parties of a low level can not take their sits in the future parliament at all. It is not important, how national-liberals will share their votes. Moreover Filat, Urekyan and Kirtoake have sworn on the Bible to create the coalition in the parliament and to finish with communistic regime. That is, most likely their voices will form the unified whole. National-liberals understand, that they do not have to win at once at all - it is enough to block election of the new president of the country by the parliament , thus, its dissolution and on unscheduled elections to put PCRM shattering defeat. I will notice at once, that unscheduled elections, if it happens, will pass under fanfares of the numerous mass street actions probably accompanied by collisions with each other and with police. The political chaos is also possible and those who control streets of cities and first of all of the capital, will win it.
Therefore a question number one - how many percent will take the Moldavian communists and whether they can keep a situation under the control? It also should be in the epicenter of the analysis of the interested in Moldavian elections political analysts. It seems to me, that political fights will not be limited by 5th of April. Stakes are too high and all the participants of this race are afraid to loose . Unfortunately, political defeat in Moldova is an equivalent to the adjudication. Therefore the basic events can just be spread out during the post elective period. It is not excluded, that the country will be seized by disorders, even "colour revolution" is possible. But all it will be actual only in one case - if «Akella» will miss and Communist Party will get less than 40 percent of votes. Otherwise the political system will easily cope with any "revolutionary" splashes and again will show the amazing viability.
- How will develop the situation in Transniestria in a context of a going deep economic crisis and a growing competition of regional elite?
- Any crisis generates polarization inside of the society, creates preconditions for social conflicts. Position in Transniestria is aggravated with that struggle of elite for distribution of powers and influence spheres by time has coincided with serious economic problems. Undoubtedly, the main intrigue of this event is , how much executive vertical is ready to polemize adequately with authors of «initiatives of 16». I have already noticed polarization of public organisations and parties on this question. Evgeniy Shevchyuk's politically correct steps which has carried out consultations practically with all regional parties, say that struggle for a civil society of Transniestria will only increase. In fight of elite are important not only legal arguments and economic motivation, but also support of politically active population. Probably, even in the form of meetings and other street actions. Shevchyuk gave his opinion at the meeting with parties and public organisations, now we will look, what will respond the presidential vertical.
In my opinion «PRORIV!» has a big happiness not to participate in these dismantling. Our Movement places the stake on concrete affairs which bring advantage to common transniestrians. We, still support increasing communication of Transniestria with Russia, construction of the democratic and socially focused state, involving of the youth in actual political, humanitarian, educational, cultural and improving projects. Disputes of political and economical elite are interesting to us only in that sense that we are troubled with destiny of our republic. You know that too rough discussion of amendments in the Constitution or too heated arguments concerning distribution of resources, powers and financial streams can really harm Transniestria. To admit it means to lose the republic.