Smirnov: “When Moldova leaves for Romania, Transnistria needs the national idea!”
English // 09:24, 4 декабря 2009 // 4338
Russian expert, political analyst, candidate of science philosophy Michael Smirnov answers the questions of the information agency “Lenta PMR”. How will relations between Moldova and Romania develop in context of the European integration?
Though joining to the European Union has been declared as the OFFICIAL national priority by the Moldavian Government in 2002, but it's not all as easy as it sounds. On the one hand, Moldova is the only from the union republics, there was the communist party in power throughout the whole epoch (last 8 years). Communists have come to power and were kept because of promises to admit Russian language and to join Union State (Russia-Belarus). It is testimony to the fact that in Moldova there was and is a wide social demand for a policy focused on cooperation with Russia.
On the other hand, local elite toned nationalistic from the very first of independence of RM have been using a theme of ethnic communication of the Moldavian population with Romania. It is clear that for almost twenty years of independence the pro-Romanian propaganda and work organizational network had had effect, the ethnic theme has amplified and has led, in particular, to events of "velvet revolution» in Kishinev.
Further, there is also the third side. Joining to the European Union seemed to unite everybody (new level of life, free moving across Europe, the European democratic values etc.). But the introduction into the European Union is impossible without the decision of a question with breakaway region (but nevertheless independent from Moldova) Transnistria and without a withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria (as foreign armies cannot be on European Union territory of the country). All these three vectors differently directed and that is why they balance each other. Today the situation is that that definitive displacement of a vector of the Moldavian policy to any of these directions will break fragile balance of forces of region as interests or one or other part of the population of Moldova (and Transnistria) will be inevitably impaired and the problem of Transnistria settlement will escalate. Here are such factors of condition a course of foreign policy of Moldova towards Romania, the European Union and Russia.
What prospects are there on this background of Transniatria?
Prospects of Transnistria are as sure as fate connected with consolidation of relations with Russia, as the only real guarantor of independence of Transnistria. Nationalist (pro-Romanian) the adjusted elites of Moldova will use, naturally, "the European" and "Romanian" vectors of the Moldavian policy as occasions to withdraw the Russian armies from Transnistria and to "attach" it to Moldova. Thus "the European" and "Romanian" variants of it «Anschluss» differ very much, but the essence for Tiraspol will be replaying of Saakashvili’s jump-off Tshinval, but on the bank of Dniester. Besides humanitarian accident for the Russian citizens in Transnistria such "joining" will mean full loss Russian influence in region and authority in the opinion of compatriots all over the world. Therefore such scenario is obviously and categorically impossible for Russia and it creates a certain background of confidence for Transnistria. But how much they are ready to understand strategic interests of Russia in South-East Europe and to give up their momentary political and economic profit motive for them it depends on ruling elites.
How is optimal way to leave the constitutional crisis in Transnistria?
First of all, it is necessary to think of the people, instead of about the current business interests. For the leaving the constitutional crisis (and anymore not to enter it), Transnistria needs recognize simple, but important things: The Era of primitive accumulation of capital in Transnistria is finished. Everything is divided. Now it is necessary to legitimize and to legalize it not only formal-legally, but also in the opinion of the public. Therefore now it should not shake a boat of political confrontations (which have absolutely certain business interests), and to work for stability and prospect of the whole Transnistria. And then the capitalisation of that, which is owned by Transnistria elite now, will increase radically. It doesn’t need to be greedy for the benefit of it. Now it is necessary to form ideas, understandable for all people in Transnistria, independently of a nationality and the second citizenship. It is necessary to build the Transnistria nation uniting different nationalities. It will be the basis for the state, the precondition of recognition of its independence.
Translated by Dina Cherevatenko