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Stanislaw Belkovsky: Bucharest declares independence of Transnistria one of the first

English // 17:08, 9 декабря 2009 // 2157
altOn the pages of IA "Lenta PMR" Stanislaw Belkovsky, the political scientist, analyst and social philosopher tells their views to the European prospects of RM, he estimates possibilities of association of Moldova and Romania and also predicts a reality of the recognition of independence of Transnistria and prognoses the ways out of the constitutional crisis in Tiraspol.

How do the Moldavian and Romanian relations will develop in a context of Euro integration RM?

The situation is this: the Euro integration of republic Moldova should not be. Moldova becomes a member of the European Union neither in the near future, nor in the further prospect. It does not depend on relations of RM and Romania which is a member of EU. Being independent, Moldova will have to reconcile to its present depressing condition and position, first of all, because the European Union will not extend itself the next decade. Now old members (founders of Europe) are not interested in the further expansion of EU in a visible historical prospect. Therefore if Moldova wants to enter the European Union, it will need to prepare for negotiations with Romania about Euro integration. Actually, there are people in today's Moldova who do not hide the joining with Romania is a question of a visible future, in particular the speaker of parliament and acting of president Michael Gimpu speaks about it showing his hand. Though Moldova denies such prospects officially, I think, after April events, after power change, after the party of communists has left in opposition, the integration of RM and Romania becomes more real.

What are the prospects of Transnistria on this background?

I think, if Kishinev and Bucharest agree for the joining, and Moldova becomes a part of Romania, Transnistria will get every reason to the independence recognition. Therefore both the European Union, and Russia, other countries will agree to the recognition of Transnistria, understanding the importance of Romania and Moldova joining. I think the Chechen Republic of "Great Romania» is not necessary, therefore Bucharest will recognize independence of Transnistria one of the first.

Today relations became sharp between elites about Igor Smirnov's constitution project in Transnistria. There are the parliament and the president in a condition of the open conflict. How is it possible to way out of the constitutional crisis optimally?

I think the success of the referendum looks doubtful enough, which is initiated by Igor Smirnov. Therefore the scenario of the compromise is actual, it would suggest the following. Certainly, Igor Smirnov stays in power and does not hand over the powers till the end of his term, till December, 2011, when he decides to nominate his for election for new term or not to do it. Thus he refuses his odious constitutional project. It is absolutely clear for me, the parliament should make concessions too, because the real independence is possible only in the conditions of the strong presidential power and with the non-admission of vertical dissidence of elite. If opposition of the president and parliament is too much, it will be able to play a fatal role in destiny of Transnistrian statehood.

Alena Arshinova talked specially for IA "Lenta PMR".