McCain, Obama and «Bradley's effect»
English // 18:04, 4 ноября 2008 // 2281
Obama, which has spent a lot of time and forces for inner-party struggle against Hillari Clinton, has gradually gained power and on finish line he already advances McCain on level of support of voters. McCain is a little exhausted by the end of campaign . The reason is not so much in its weakness as the candidate -applicants's forces and possibilities are approximately equal - but in a good start. McCain has told already all that he could, and in search of "something else" to say, in search of additional arguments and additional support of voters, he started to improvise, and consequently - to do errors. But Obama had enough preforms with his tightened start, up to the finish.
At the beginning of voting the senator-democrat Barrack Obama advanced his contender-republican, senator John McCain in the range from 2 % to 13 % in different states. The national separation was 6-7 %. However to consider Obama as the winner is obviously early. There is a factor, factor of "the instant decision», accepted spontaneously, on a wave of emotions, already in a booth for voting.
«The factor of electors» has worked in 2000 in a duel between Gor and Bush,who had the equal level of voices at the beginning, but at the end Bush won though formally Gor has gained approximately one hundred thousand votes more than Bush. According the polls, Obama has another factor working on him - «Bradley's factor». Bradley - the afro-american politician standing in governors in one of states, advancing hith whiteopponet but … lost. The emotional hostility existing between black and white has worked.During the latest moment, already in a booth for voting also has withdrawn from Bradley a part of voters, being on his side, but … not managed to overcome suddenly gushed wave of hostility to afro-americans, as a source of problems, criminality, narcotisms, etc. Something similar threatens also Obama.
Summarising these factors, it is possible to make confident enough forecast about McCain's victory. It means continuation of a present course of the American administration, without any basic changes. However, unlike Bush, McCain hardly will stay in a presidential armchair two terms - his age will not allow …
Sergey Ilchenko
At the beginning of voting the senator-democrat Barrack Obama advanced his contender-republican, senator John McCain in the range from 2 % to 13 % in different states. The national separation was 6-7 %. However to consider Obama as the winner is obviously early. There is a factor, factor of "the instant decision», accepted spontaneously, on a wave of emotions, already in a booth for voting.
«The factor of electors» has worked in 2000 in a duel between Gor and Bush,who had the equal level of voices at the beginning, but at the end Bush won though formally Gor has gained approximately one hundred thousand votes more than Bush. According the polls, Obama has another factor working on him - «Bradley's factor». Bradley - the afro-american politician standing in governors in one of states, advancing hith whiteopponet but … lost. The emotional hostility existing between black and white has worked.During the latest moment, already in a booth for voting also has withdrawn from Bradley a part of voters, being on his side, but … not managed to overcome suddenly gushed wave of hostility to afro-americans, as a source of problems, criminality, narcotisms, etc. Something similar threatens also Obama.
Summarising these factors, it is possible to make confident enough forecast about McCain's victory. It means continuation of a present course of the American administration, without any basic changes. However, unlike Bush, McCain hardly will stay in a presidential armchair two terms - his age will not allow …
Sergey Ilchenko